Hurricane Forecasting

Weather is interesting to me. And, I think, most people. Weather affects a lot of our day. Most people check the weather before leaving the house in the morning. We used to tune into the Weather Channel, but now it’s weather apps. I have the standard weather app that allows me to easily check my local weather and the conditions near loved ones. I also have Windy that lets me look in more detail at several forecasts, radar, satellite, wind speed, etc. I love it and I’m still learning what it can do.

In the past, I’ve not had to worry about hurricanes. Those were things that happened hundreds of miles away. At most, I’d catch a little extra rain and wind from an outer band. We’re a couple hundred miles from the coast now, but significant impacts are possible, so I’ve been watching the named storm, Debby, closely. It’s frustrating when the best the weather people say is “we don’t know”.

The storm is moving slowly and that means parameters change in the meantime. It reminds me of Jurassic Park. Ian Malcolm studied chaos theory. Explained in short: small changes make a big difference in outcome. Debby’s slow progress makes for constant small changes in the pressure systems and water temperatures off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. And weather is chaos.

I do enjoy “Tropical Tidbits“, a Youtube channel that goes active during hurricane season. The forecaster gets deep into the details of what different computer models show. If you’re in a hurricanes projected path, I highly recommend tuning in. Dr. Cowan is easy to understand and is passionate about his work.

Our house shouldn’t be in any danger from Debby regardless. We may get some extra rain which my garden will be happy for.

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